Latest models again pointy to the potential of storms including some that may go severe later today. It would be great if the storms can tap into the surface moisture. Any storms that reach high up in the atmosphere will be the ones to watch. This is a similar environment tot yesterday. However, temperatures have warmed somewhat to -8C at 500hPa. a marginal setup but I suspect very electrically active storms if they can form in a deep atmosphere.
Storm report
Storms for eastern NSW 29th November 2012
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What are thoughts about today – soundings look reasonable.
I'm chasing if something pops on Southern Highlands/Tablelands. Hope for 3rd day of not putting a foot wrong! with good storms on Tuesday near Temora, and a unexpected outflow monster from Orange to Lithgow.
I have looked at the models but I will only go out if storms start to develop late afternoon. I do see some warming of the atmosphere. I have had 4 days in a row with a storm but a fifth day would be even better. If cloud towers do start to form over the Blue Mountains, then I will go out and chase.
Sounds great! Great you have nailed the storms. Please share some of your pictures on here.
if towers go up on the mountains I will head up, need the cap to break.. might struggle a bit today.
Weekend looks good for ya though mate
working all weekend………………..
I agree with Paul's assessment, even though the weekend holds lower CAPE, the dynamics are much better
First scrap of convection near Portland – lining up Putty for 1-2 hours time..LOL.
There was a significant storm SW of Grafton yesterday afternoon (29 Nov). Seems to have been a right mover supercell, and even resulted in a comment from Harald Richter:
“A pretty (borderline) supercell is heading NE towards Grafton NSW at present.
The storm lives on the backside of a midlevel trough that is poking into SE QLD.
The storm has a good Weak Echo Region (WER) capped by what looks like
a compact hail core with reflectivities reaching 68 dBZ. Most remarkably,
the storm has a very pronounced midlevel forward flank notch (V-shaped) downstream from
the updraft (downstream today in that area means NNW).”
128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 02:00 29/11/2012 to 08:00 29/11/2012 UTC
The storm resulted in over 1000 lightning strikes in the hour, but sure collapsed quickly coming off the range