https://www.extremestorms.com.au/new-tropical-cyclone-off-queensland-coast-sunday-23-february-2025/
Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been an unusual storm due to its behavior and slow movement over recent days.
Essentially, the storm developed into a tropical Cyclone during Sunday 23 February 2025 but has been very slow moving. The storm has been a challenge to forecast as the main weather models varied in terms of what it was expected to do.
According to CIMSS modelling, the storm did reach a Category 4 system under the Saffir Simpson Scale before starting its weakening trend during Thursday and Friday.
The storm has now moved into an unfavorable environment and thus will continue to weaken further but out to sea. The storm is now moving over waters that are only heated to 24C to 26C which will assist its decline.
Interestingly, the storm is expected to become an intense east coast low with early models suggesting three possible scenarios being:
- Landfall in southeast Queensland as a rain depression. The GFS has been suggesting high rainfalls of up to 300 mm over large areas of southeast Queensland. Such rainfall would result in significant flooding. The GFS suggests landfall south of Bundaberg but north of Brisbane.
- Another model (ACCESS) suggests the storm having a significant impact across southeast Queensland and into northeast New South Wales with coastal showers spreading southwards towards Sydney.
- Another model suggests landfall over southeast Queensland but a rain depression extending all the way down into and through New South Wales and even into Victoria.
There is still much uncertainty of its behaviour but evidence does point to a significant rain event across southeast Queensland and Northeast New South Wales over coming days, especially from Wednesday 5 March 2025.
As such, this is one storm to watch over the next seven days.
Attached are sample of projected models:
1 - BSCH (Sample plot for Thursday evening showing an intense storm encroaching close to Bundaberg but intense rainfall spreading south towards Brisbane).
2 - Windy.com (ACCESS) showing an intense east coast low and rain depression off the northeast coast of New South Wales. This outcome spreads rain southwards towards the mid north coast of New South Wales for Thursday.
The above shows how models do not agree with one another at the present time as to where the system will finish its lifespan.
I have also attached an image showing the storm Sunday morning (NASA Zoom Earth with a forecast overlay added) with a projection for landfall suggested for the Sunshine Coast (Maroochydore).