Some interesting reading in regards to alternative reasoning behind bushfires and why climate change is not necessarily to blame
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley This will be a long posting, because it is necessary to nail the childish myth that global warming caused the bushfires in Australia. The long, severe drought i…
Watch it. The source data of this graph cannot be verified.
The graph is reasonably genuine, but it is global and therefore has little relevance to what’s happening locally in Australia. At a global scale precipitation is increasing, but it’s decreasing in many subtropical areas (like southern Australia), offset by increases in the tropics and in mid- to high latitudes. For similar reasons, claims that Australian average rainfall is increasing are true but not really relevant to what’s happening in the south, because they’re dominated by the big increases in rainfall in the northwest quarter of Australia.
Often or not coastal NSW rainfall is influenced by east coast lows which can drop significant rainfall within localised regions. Some years you get more than others and each low is different in intensity and impacts. The east coast lows are often known as “one of events”. There can be long periods of dry followed by an east coast low which can create flood events followed by a new long dry spell thereafter. Has anyone ever done any studies of these to determine if there have been any changes over the years. I form the impression that coastal rainfall has not varied because in almost any year, a few east coast lows will form off our coastline.
Is anyone aware of the 1974 bush fire season which saw approximately 4.7 million hectares burn in NSW. This bush fire season was different because during that year, there was extensive rain across NSW including the western part of the state. The grass that grew following those rains dried out. Subsequent fires were ignited that burnt 4.7 million hectares. It appears that the fires were left to burn because they did not impact on anyone too much. This shows that fires of such scale and intensity are capable of occurring even in wet years given the right conditions.
Climate Change and long term Climate Change modeling is well above my pay grade but after 30 plus years fighting bush fires across eastern Australia a 10 year drought and ever decreasing hazard reduction of fuel loading over the same period or more might just be part of the equation.
My nephew works up there doing remediation on walking trails, he was up there in Spring and said to me, “I have never seen so much crap up there, it is everywhere and it is so dry, one spark and the entire mountain range will go up.” I was down for two weeks before xmas, fishing along the Snowy river, tons of dead trees and branches piled up six foot deep or more in places along the bank from the winter run off, the side of the hills along that river covered in deep undergrowth. Again a fire waiting to happen, not if, but when.
Agree – We were on Mt Gibraltar at Mittagong a few weeks ago. I have never seen such dryness within the bush. One spark and all is gone. Its the same everywhere you go.