I was astonished to some great structured storms in the Gunnedah region showing up on radar.
See : 128km Radar Loop for Namoi, 11:00 12/11/2011 to 11:00 13/11/2011 UTC
64km radar
See : 64km Radar Loop for Namoi, 11:00 12/11/2011 to 11:00 13/11/2011 UTC
Wow!!!! This is the exact type of day I always wanted to be in the Liverpool Plains and I wasn’t there. Couldn’t have chased due to family stuff, but why does this always happen when I can’t chase? I know the north east gets great storms and supercells at times but this is my place of choice to see a massive classic supercell. Looking at the radar my hail estimate for this storm would be 6-8cms and I would not be surprised if there was a bit larger. What was the models like? Can anyone send me a the 00x or 12z charts for the day before or is there any way I can plot yesterday from saturdays models? I would love to know the LCL for this storms as it looks to have had great tornado potential.Jeff.
Why did I not chase the area? It was not obvious except in hindsight. Because we have to look through varying models as to what would happen on the day. I saw the hint of slight NNW flow in the area so I know that usually means that winds will push the moisture all the way to the ranges to the east! There was not what I would call incredible upper level support – 30 knots at 500hPa and about 15 knots at 700hPa. The moisture on the morning was 14 dew points even 12 dew points. The temperatures at 500hPa were struggling at -12hPa. There were also existing storms popping up everywhere on the morning. So why would one chase the area. I guess a localised boundary and an increase of moisture of 3C dew points made a huge difference.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Hi guys,
This news story was sent to me and is of tennis ball sized hail
http://au.prime7.yahoo.com/n2/video/-/watch/27246325/storm-damage/
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
This was the forecast sounding for the area affected by the supercells and tennis ball sized hailstones. Sounding shows a little dry slot at 700hPa but the mid levels very saturated.
There is a chance of severe storms in the area again on Wednesday but the dew points are looking very dodgy. I can’t believe what GFS is throwing up over the western slopes, lots of false CAPE again with actual surface dew points being very low. I like the look of the upper Hunter on Wednesday and of course it will fire along the coast around Port Macqaurrie but I wouldn’t drive up there. One of the access models hinted at a dryline bulge in the upper hunter on Wednesday afternoon and the possiblity of dew points around 15-16 with the presence of a 500mb trough, so who knows, could be a surprise day?
Hi guys,
I know you may think what I am on but please consider it is only a comparison from a structured alignment perspective in the cell behaviour. This link posted is from early January 2010
http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F358___07+january+2010+jd
On this day there were numerous storms early along the Warrambungles and then a few dominated and moved NE before becoming messy. This was prior to the doppler radar being in place. The storm developed in a similar scenario moisture returning inland and the storm developed almost in exactly the same location!
Are we able to get a comparable radar image from Newcastle for this day and yesterday?
Just interested and I know yesterday’s stuff was impressive. I just have noted that there have been a few rather impressive doppler radar imagery without the impressive storms of late.
I once again looked at the radar from this storm on Sunday and noted that the hook and impressive structure lasted one hour which is more than substabtial to produce some impressive hail sizes and awesome structure. Also impressive would have been the hail dump at the end as it collapsed rapidly.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara