An interesting weather setup appears to be unfolding across southern Australia that is expected to result in a multiple day event where maximum temperatures of over 40C could be expected.

The heatwave that is anticipated is expected to cross through South Australia during Saturday arriving across the inland southern Australia by Sunday. What is most interesting about this event is that the heat appears to stagnate for at least 4 to 6 days across the same region before starting to break apart by Thursday 29 January 2026.

A sample of the GFS forecast temperature for Wednesday afternoon. Note the large dome of expected heat across the southeast but concentrated inland. The New South Wales coast and Victorian coastal strip will largely miss the bulk of the event. The worst of the event lies within the Murray Darling Basin extending into South Australia and southern Queensland.

The hot weather is expected to be widespread with the Murray Darling Basin region of New South Wales and Victoria most at risk from the event.

When zoomed in for New South Wales, it is shown that a brief burst of heat extends close to the coast so the inland areas of Sydney should reach at least 38C for Sunday (One day) but not as hot on other days. Most coastal areas should avoid this. The worst affected area lies across the Western Riverina, southwest New South Wales towards towns such as Hay and Mildura and the Mallee of northwest Victoria extending into South Australia.

What is most unusual about this event is that forecasts of 44C to 46C and even 47C is being made for towns such as Bourke, Condobolin, Griffith, Mildura, Tibooburra. These are extreme maximum temperatures usually confined to inland desert regions. Instead, it is suggested that such conditions will encroach into areas that rarely if ever see such conditions for January or anytime during a typical summer.

In terms of the fire situation, there are still fires burning across Victoria such as the Walwa blaze in northeast Victoria which are not extinguished. The extended heat has potential to ignite new fire fronts in coming days.

Sample GFS for Tuesday afternoon. Note the large area of New South Wales suggested to have maximum temperatures over 45C for that day.

Interestingly, the coastal areas of New South Wales will not see any of this heat except for 1 day being Sunday where maximum temperatures may reach at least 38C at some locations furthest away from the coastal fringe. As such, most of the event will be confined to areas west of the Great Dividing Range.

The current fire situation for Victoria. Note how the Walwa blaze is still burning. This event has the potential to spark a new fire crisis for the state.

I have attached some GFS forecast maximum temperatures models for the new week. It is unusual to see this across such a wide area for such a long period of time. This is certainly an event that will be followed in due course.

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